Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 3.479553 4.152740 4.902545 5.796878 6.831683 7.988417 9.376249
2025-05-04 2.506705 3.411647 4.536423 6.024010 7.924846 10.256142 13.313317
2025-05-11 1.829544 2.795364 4.115437 6.020371 8.661542 12.151266 17.058843
2025-05-18 1.331715 2.261720 3.646372 5.803938 9.013336 13.529088 20.258809
2025-05-25 0.975782 1.830207 3.207129 5.507341 9.149809 14.564596 23.047611
2025-06-01 0.765697 1.571642 2.965867 5.442053 9.581126 16.029189 26.564612
2025-06-08 0.609074 1.362254 2.755034 5.372808 9.969602 17.438767 30.107407
2025-06-15 0.536123 1.290690 2.767127 5.676529 10.997154 19.944229 35.584448
2025-06-22 0.447166 1.162140 2.644738 5.709829 11.547965 21.705152 39.995647
2025-06-29 0.372602 1.044121 2.517558 5.707304 12.022104 23.365681 44.365718
2025-07-06 0.310707 0.937938 2.392274 5.683641 12.443997 24.960423 48.740707
2025-07-13 0.292309 0.935161 2.490620 6.132312 13.823507 28.389916 56.605722
2025-07-20 0.256610 0.879193 2.462533 6.317835 14.724323 31.061578 63.407979
2025-07-27 0.228747 0.837552 2.461589 6.565911 15.787956 34.146711 71.240812
2025-08-03 0.193008 0.761094 2.358548 6.563102 16.321970 36.257861 77.420652
2025-08-10 0.154408 0.661445 2.172577 6.329944 16.322953 37.309225 81.650190
2025-08-17 0.120464 0.563556 1.967164 6.009883 16.082118 37.837234 84.883744
2025-08-24 0.100211 0.506956 1.866152 5.939426 16.404454 39.554106 90.609506
2025-08-31 0.083335 0.456179 1.770138 5.864655 16.704197 41.242979 96.395426
2025-09-07 0.077735 0.450703 1.816448 6.192624 18.026268 45.255011 107.269968
2025-09-14 0.067029 0.417656 1.764058 6.228575 18.617698 47.693011 114.982880
2025-09-21 0.057254 0.384253 1.702177 6.225850 19.108559 49.941869 122.441152
2025-09-28 0.048628 0.352120 1.636567 6.200306 19.535521 52.076185 129.791162